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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However the latest race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans ascending together. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still