War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".